Description

the black swan: the impact of the highly improbable by nassim nicholas taleb is a book published in 2007 that explores the concept of “black swan” events—rare, unpredictable events that have a massive impact on the world. taleb, a former trader and risk analyst, argues that such events are often neglected or underestimated by traditional methods of risk assessment and forecasting.

the book is divided into three parts. the first part introduces the idea of the black swan and discusses how these events are characterized by their rarity, extreme impact, and the tendency for people to create explanations for them after they occur. the second part examines how black swans influence various aspects of life, including economics, finance, and personal decision-making. the third part offers advice on how to better handle uncertainty and improve resilience against unexpected events.

the black swan challenges conventional wisdom about risk and probability, emphasizing the limitations of predictive models and the importance of acknowledging and preparing for the unknown. taleb’s insights encourage readers to think differently about risk management and decision-making in an unpredictable world.